Oddbean new post about | logout
 I’ve seen literally hundreds of devs trying to start things and the vast majority don’t make it. The ones that do build super fast and try many things until something works. That thing that works is usually a clone of an existing business, but in some cases with a twist (some new aspect). I’ve never seen a single unicorn paradigm shift startup up close. Not that they don’t happen but the odds are astronomical probably. 

So really what you need is a super builder good with hypothesis formulation for why something will work, but then they also have to do marketing. A friend was a good example of this, build a weekend project and made a couple grand, no biggie. But then leaned all in on marketing and building a personal brand, listening to feedback and improving product. Now, very successful. People don’t realize how much marketing plays an important role but all I hear on nostr is build it and they will come which is hilarious and stupid.