Oddbean new post about | logout
 Gm nostriches, watching this video this mornjng and really enjoyed it, even if the guy is a touch boomer, warren buffet aligned for my liking, but I think worth a watch.

Loved that he overlooked the two prior and one later “bitcoin bubble” in his dataset. If those holders in 2017 held until today, they’d a) buy up about 4x and b) not have been bankrupted by a tax bill (never overlook HMRC or the IRS).

Bubbles burst, as speculative investors with withdrawal gains and are exit liquidity. Bitcoin price becomes overvalued due to speculation, but due to underlying value proposition, increases in value over time (nothing new to nostiches, but worth stating)

Don’t try and rebalance your portfolio, when things get frothy, reduce your DCA and don’t take on leverage, maybe buy “value stocks” (if there is still such a thing) and wait out the blow off top and smash buy and resume dca when prices return to and maybe dip below fair value (or ideally 200wma cheers nostr:npub1x685uqp8l53rlkmfkmkxu8qx68cz0fs3k8kn3m4nyjf7k2rchv6slr3g2v ). Nfa, but also if you want to bitch, gfy, 

https://youtu.be/d3yaKI_RHdo?si=5Vk3wYz1kYoDDkEW