Oddbean new post about login | logout #harris fans Are these polls fake? https://image.nostr.build/433249f85af9ab4c2adaf18e2c1bfd7012b525616f757f2fcfde838565db67ea.jpg
Polymarket is crypto-betting no? Could be biased. Mayhe it's different on other platforms?
Mayhe
Does not look biased. Looks like people figured out she is a fraud that got zero votes from american democrats. Installed puppet https://image.nostr.build/497cf3990e8f24896690ba883376187009e968c18dbef13aba43d6b65736d755.jpg
Predictit still has Harris on top for all it's worth.
Biased?....
Maybe biased the other way since the other guy shared another platform having Trump winning. I don't know. Just made a passing observation. Hope Trump mops the shit out of her though. Send a message.
Its a free market…. so if the aggregate is biased, someone will just come along and soak up the positive +EV. This is how markets work buddy.
Technically you could arbitrage all platforms that have different odds, but clearly there aren't enough people doing that cause they all have different odds. In theory, in practice is in theory.
Wow. Do you know if there’s something specific causing his surge? Related to the hurricane response maybe?
Musk has 200 million followers. Dark MAGA
Yeah, the democrats have family and friends that are hurting too. They see it.
Brian Stelter explains Dark MAGA and says Elon Musk has been “radicalized” because he wants accountability in government 😂 Brian is biased https://video.nostr.build/0580cdeeb0ee0d1b8cd8016312c395e0b641ac3c2b0c247d32d5226c2c243111.mp4 He also says Musk’s comments at the Trump rally will have “dangerous consequences” 😱 It’s so satisfying watching these people sh*t themselves over Trump and Elon teaming up for DJT’s Retribution Presidency.
Thanks for this!
