Russia's economic strength will last another 18 months before unraveling as Putin grapples with policy 'trilemma,' think tank says
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Russia's economic strength could last another year-and-a-half before it starts to fade, according to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The think tank pointed to the nation's show of defiance amid its invasion of Ukraine, with the Russian economy still strong despite rising military costs and Western sanctions. However, the current arrangement is expected to come apart within eighteen months due to growing imbalances and possible social problems. Putin is facing a policy 'trilemma' as the nation goes through its third year of war in Ukraine, trying to fund the military, maintain living standards, and keep the economy stable. Signs of weakness have already emerged, such as record military spending, inflation, and falling incomes. Experts warn of near-term social unrest and a grim future due to a shortage of workers, declining productivity, and isolation from the rest of the world.

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https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-putin-growth-outlook-inflation-military-spending-2024-4