Since I had someone who doesn't follow sports (privately) ask why the above example is absurd, if you pick an all-time great player who's among the best young players across all major sports, like Gretzky, how old were they before they were the best player in hockey? You could make a case for 19, although I think most people would say 20 or 21. Now delete 99% of hockey players. Is Gretzky the best at age 16? Maybe? But probably not, and that's one of the most favorable examples possible.