Businesses are only disincentived while they are under the boot of the government.

Everyone wants privacy for themselves and transparency for others. Whether they realise it or not, everyone wants what monero offers. Game theory suggests that Bitcoin will adopt privacy rather than perish to something else like monero. I think the need for privacy will become apparent before it's too late for Bitcoin. Bitcoin will adopt privacy while it's still the dominant cryptocurrency and maintain its network effect. However, if the USD is still too strong and Bitcoin becomes captured, monero could grow in dominance in the alternative economy and be the currency to topple the USD. 

The other threat is fractional reserve banking. Everyone wants the most secure store of value. Again, game theory suggests that every coin will be fractionally reserved as much as possible, until the risk vs reward balances. Variable block size helps prevent fractional reserves by lessening friction on bankruns. This would require tail emissions and abandoning the 21 million cap, which is not going to happen on Bitcoin. 

Honestly it's hard to know so far in advance what the better tradeoffs will be. By the time it becomes apparent it may be too late. That's why I think that variable block size may be the deciding factor in a contest for dominance. 

I think Moneros poor performance comes from being pumped initially, and Bitcoins dominance in the discovery of cryptocurrency as a store of value phase. I expect monero to strengthen as the transition to medium of exchange phase takes place.