Nah, too pesimistic. Bitcoin has its advantages over gold, its incentives, and that is not to be underestimated. 
I would say in the hyperbitcoinized places, where it is the main currency in fluctuation, 100% of families with stable electricity and internet at home will have their own Umbrel or similar lightning node at home.
Custodial will only be as backups (when you leave home and your node is suddenly down) or for convenience for small expenses to be coupled with Visa cards or something like that.