Recession risks are fading, business economists say, but political tensions pose threat to economy
==========

Just a quarter of business economists and analysts expect the United States to fall into recession this year. Respondents to a National Association of Business Economics survey expect year-over-year inflation to exceed 2.5% through 2024. Inflation has fallen from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.4% in December. The Fed has stopped raising rates and has signaled that it expects to reduce rates three times this year. Respondents are concerned about the chances of a conflict between China and Taiwan, conflict in the Middle East driving oil prices above $90 a barrel, and political instability in the United States before or after the Nov. 5 presidential election. 57% of respondents say budget policies need to be more disciplined. The most important objectives of government budget policy should be promoting medium- to long-term growth and reducing the federal deficit and debts. 7% cite the goal of reducing income inequality.

#Recession #BusinessEconomists #Inflation #FederalReserve #PoliticalTensions #UsEconomy

https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-interest-rates-federal-reserve-recession-3dc2a271c285ec78d7b889afa1e1f5eb