Oddbean

For six full years I've been updating and commenting on the status of global central bank money on Twitter. As the seventh year of my research commences, for 2024 Q2, it's about time to bring it home to the better bird protocol. This is a much more philosophically aligned place to focus in on the signal when it comes to our money, and I'm happy to finally convert these posts to long-form here. **This is quarterly update #25, for 2024 Q2.** If you have followed [my work](https://www.porkopolis.io/) before, then you know that the constant hymn I've sung while speaking publicly about Bitcoin is that the only, economically comparable money supply in the fiat world to 21 million bitcoins is what economists call the "monetary base," or "base money." This is a corporeal money supply that has existed across all of modern economic and central banking epochs. For an apples-to-apples, ontological comparison with Bitcoin, look no further then Base money. ## So what is it? It is *central bank money*, comprised of two supplies: 1. **Physical currency**: Notes and coins, or “cash;” 2. **Bank reserves**: The “Master account” that each commercial bank holds with its central bank. Now, why do I refer to this as, "Central bank money?" This is because, unlike all other money supplies in the fiduciary banking world (like M1/M2/M3), the Monetary base is the sole and ultimate money supply controlled by the central bank. It is, literally, the *printing press*. What follows won't be a lesson in reserve ratios or monetary economics. The point is that you simply understand that ***there is*** a money supply that central banks solely control, and of course (of course!) this is what Bitcoin's 21 million are up against. The monetary base is to the core of the entire fiat financial system, as 21 million bitcoins are to the core of the Bitcoin protocol. One is open and permissionless, and one is not. By the way, the monetary base is essentially (though not entirely) analogous to the *total liabilities* of a central bank, so we can (basically) say that the monetary base is the "balance sheet" of each central bank. **On cash**. Quick notes on the above. Certainly you understand what "cash" is, and it is indeed an instrument that has been fully monopolized by each central bank in each nation around the world--only they can print it. Even though it is true that banks in more free banking societies in the past could freely print and strike notes and coins, the central bank (or state) monopoly has been around for a long time. Kublai Khan was the first to do it 750 years ago. **On bank reserves**. Don't stress your brain on this too much, but this is the main "settlement money" that banks use between each other, when they want to settle their debts. It is digital now (Fedwire in US, CHAPS in UK), but it doesn't technically have to be, and of course before modern technology took over even a few decades ago, it was not. These two stacks of retail and wholesale cash, stacks of *central bank money*, are what makes up the **Monetary base**. This is the *printing press*. Only this compares to 21 million bitcoins. And gold, and silver by the way. Final note, central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs, which are simply LARPing on Bitcoin's success, are indeed created by central banks, and they are indeed classified as Base money. They are going to be a "third rail." They are thankfully incredibly small, pilot projects today. We will see how far democracies will be tested, as autocracies no doubt will mainstream them; but for now, consider them, at least economically, to be inconsequential to the update below. With that review out of the way, onward to Q2 update for 2024. ## Bitcoin is the **6th largest money in the world**. In February 2024, it surpassed the monetary base of the United Kingdom, that is its value was larger than the Bank of England's balance sheet, and it remains so to this day. As of 30 June 2024, there are four central bank balance sheets larger than Bitcoin: 1. **Federal Reserve (dollar)**: $5.73 trillion 2. **European Central Bank (euro)**: $5.19 trillion equivalent 3. **People's Bank of China (yuan)**: $5.11 trillion equivalent 4. **Bank of Japan (yen)**: $4.20 trillion equivalent So if we only look at this from a "fiat" perspective, then Bitcoin is indeed the 5th largest money in the world. However, the all-important monetary metal throughout history that even a child knows about--gold--is still king at around **$15 trillion in value**, or 6.1 billion ounces worldwide. Note, this does not include gold lost/recycled through industry; in that case, it is estimated that about 6.8 billion ounces of gold have been mined throughout humanity. ![](https://blossom.primal.net/21e9bcba7166efbd1f50b48e4bae3650054b864c2358b61dd05ccf9333939193.png)*Update #25 Executive Summary* Silver, for what it's worth, is still a big "monetary" metal; though it is true, much more silver is gobbled up in industry compared to gold. There are about 30.9 billion ounces of non-industrial silver floating around the world (most of it in jewelry and silverware form) that is valued in today's prices at $930 billion. Bitcoin bigger. ## **State of the Print: $26.1 trillion**. If we add up the Big Five central banks already mentioned above (again, Bitcoin being larger than the Bank of England's monetary base), as well as the next 45 central banks, we get to a total, USD equivalent value of **$26.1 trillion in base money across the world**. If we consider $26.1 trillion as the Big Boss of central bank money, the figure in totality, then Bitcoin at $1.2 trillion network value indeed has some way to go. We can also imagine how the Pareto distribution occurs even in money, if Bitcoin after only 15 years is already larger than every central bank money in the world except for four of them. Wild to ponder. ## Inflation: 12.7% per year. It is also true that for two years they have been trying to "normalize" their balance sheets after the 2020-22 Covid madness, stimulus, and money printing. Of course, they have been trying all along to normalize since the 2008 global finance crisis (GFC), but I digress. When I first started my website, I vowed never to use such a non-corporeal thing as CPI to discuss how much things cost. A "general increase in the level of consumer prices," or CPI, as measured by planning boards around the world, is not a real thing. It may be calculated by people with the best of intentions, but it has been manipulated and volumes have been written about it. I don't use it. I have always defined inflation as the classical economists did: Inflation is an increase in the "stock" of money. If we know the all-time stock of euros printed by the European Central Bank now, and we know the all-time stock of euros printed by the ECB 12 months ago, then it is very easy to calculate the annual inflation of the euro. Not only is it easy, but *it is real*. It is corporeal. Watch what they do, not what they say. But we should be rigorous. If inflation is an increase in the stock of money, what is a decrease in the stock of money? Does this happen? Well, this is *deflation*, and yes it does happen. You may be surprised to learn that for two years central banks around the world have collectively been shrinking their balance sheets, and thus we have been in a state of deflation. With my research we can visually see all of this, and it is here: ![](https://blossom.primal.net/7b45c11c9345fbf26fdd44ce7007c737f14a4351d8b4028773d374612b3c1fd2.png)*Inflation, or Deflation?* Turns out that the normalization is more difficult than they thought, as they are still at $26.1 trillion, and before Covid the global monetary base was $20 trillion. Nonetheless, they have stopped the money printing of 2020 and 2021. I have written much about my [methodology for these reports](https://www.porkopolis.io/methodology/), but the bottom line is that the area curve on the left axis (the base money itself, denominated in dollars), will not necessarily reflect what is happening with the actual money print, trailing 12-month % figures on the right axis (the growth rate or inflation rate). It is a *Wittgenstein's ruler* thing. The blended, global, annual rate of central bank money printing at the moment is nearly flat, just slightly negative at -0.3%. The flat levels and the slight rate of deflation have been relatively consistent for the last two years, but if you look at that the 2022 peak of $30 trillion, this may seem like they have cut the supply much more than this. *They haven't*. This is because, on balance, ***most of the world's currencies have fallen faster in value against the dollar, even though they continue to print***. This is why we have seen $4 trillion in base money shed in value over the last couple years of rising interest rates, but the *actual decrease the rate of base money printed* has only been around **-1% to -2% per year**, when measured across each currency's native unit growth, each month. And for the high signal, no-noise figure in my attempt to get you to one number to understand how much central banks have compounded their fiat base money stack across 50+ years, **that figure is 12.7% per year**. And Powell says he wants to cut rates (print money) again. Wild. ## Let's compare. For the rest of this report, I want to do something different and simply spend some time looking at the compound annual growth rates of various corporeal things around the world, in order that we can compare those to the growth of the fiat monetary base, and Bitcoin. Remember, most things in the financial and economic world grow exponentially. This simply means that they grow *constantly*. The financial term here is compound growth, or compound interest. This rate of growth can indeed change year to year (interest rates can go up, or down), but over the years we can observe a strong trend, and that is what I want to summarize here for you. ## Population. The world has grown exponentially at **1.7% per year** over the last 75 years. However, despite all the overpopulation myths you've probably heard, this rate of growth is actually falling, well below trend, and we only grow at **0.9% per year** at the moment. <img src="https://blossom.primal.net/90fbd48fcd521e23de66747536591d3ef2896444064a7b2e199078db0bfba193.png"> ## GDP. The United States has grown its economy at 5.2% compounded per year since the founding of the republic. We are at the higher end of this trend right now, $28 trillion per year and growing at **5.8% per year**. <img src="https://blossom.primal.net/34f4fc9e55e6f56dba3e4e8dbd5dcbd3e9e4e0d34065342b979232eea511339b.png"> ## Stocks. Stocks grow exponentially as well, don't let anyone tell you otherwise. The growth rate is **7.3% per year** for the S&P 500, the main US index that tracks more than 80% of total market caps. <img src="https://blossom.primal.net/296a61cbf0d70e364b83f83194ec77f403b2400cd0a5037267c12df7515fc75e.png"> ## Stocks. With Dividends. If you reinvest those dividends into the same stock market, you'll earn more. Still compound growth, but 2% higher at **9.3% per year** for the S&P. <img src="https://blossom.primal.net/3e7af90c34a41cd46c7cd40d41882978d779bac8a41264a757acecf3bb8abaa2.png"> ## Bonds. Bonds are supposedly safer than stocks (bondholders get paid back first), and more cash flowing. If you look at the longest running bond index in the US, it grows at **7.1% per year**, compounded. <img src="https://blossom.primal.net/00a0792079370ed7fe1f5764885b1e42937ed819ad0ab873d68d23cf557379f3.png"> ## Base Money. As we've discussed, base money grows, if re-weighting the native unit growth each month, at **12.7% compounded per year**. However, this trendline analysis looks at it differently. It simply looks at the USD value of the global monetary base (again, **$26.1 trillion**), and draws an exponential trendline on that USD equivalent growth for 50+ years. In other words, this is going to be *after all currency fluctuations* have played themselves out. Do you think the growth rate here will be higher or lower? Actually lower, at **10.3% per year**. But there is a big asterisk here, as more base money supplies are added in later periods than in the 1970s and 1980s, so it is not as rigorous as the 12.7% figure. In any event, one might expect this trendline analysis to *actually be higher* in that case, so it goes to show how quickly currency values can fall against the global reserve currency! <img src="https://blossom.primal.net/01af174097a9eb2e8d51b80d3bea8e71e135664eecc511f317d09b0f43dd1193.png"> ## Silver. This is total ounces ever mined. They trend upward at **1.4% per year**. <img src="https://blossom.primal.net/ae1aa48cfdadb64b93ddde96443879ce0d55c35b0f5310fbe142c4cccae7f387.png"> ## Gold. This is total ounces ever mined. Gold trends upward at **1.7% per year**. Faster than silver. Surprised? Notice the R-squared (goodness of fit) for both silver and gold. <img src="https://blossom.primal.net/3616dbb2d34660549ee03326c63bba15dcff8d5d90f416770875555e9bac4215.png"> ## Bitcoin. Bitcoins grow according to a basic logarithmic curve. Trying to draw percentiles is pointless here, and even measuring a trendline is somewhat pointless, as everyone knows the bitcoins prescribed into the future, by the protocol. Better to just quote the trailing 12-month growth figure, and it is **1.7% per year** and falling. For now, identical to gold. <img src="https://blossom.primal.net/bbb62f63b6f9a4f2ead25f2af673bfa2a9695ded9e8ccd6c24893d26df876591.png"> ## Silver price. Since 1971 it's trended at 3.4% per year. Silver bug? <img src="https://blossom.primal.net/1503c5ddea14b2d3252119bc115570495d26f468e8782d0f698470008c766834.png"> ## Gold price. Since 1971 it's trended at 5.0% per year. Gold bug? <img src="https://blossom.primal.net/f7e1e3683fcd4dc190b8c185c2173b0def0dde015402c5d61aa332305057a22e.png"> ## Bitcoin price. Note, we have finally arrived at something that grows differently than exponential. As I've observed since 2018, Bitcoin grows according to a power trend. Did you notice that all the prior exponential trends displayed themselves as straight lines on log scale? Well, with Bitcoin, the power trendline gradually falls across time, but the growth is still well larger than anything we've covered thus far. Why? It's being adopted, of course. Bitcoin's power trendline has grown **169.9% per year** since Bitcoin Pizza Day in 2010. Note that this is something akin to a "Lifetime Achievement" figure, and it will continue to fall every day. Over the prior 12 months ending 30 June 2024, Bitcoin grew **105.6% over the year**. The compound growth of the power trend today is **45% per year**. By 2030 it will fall to "only" **36% per year**. Oh yes, and it is free, open, and permissionless. <img src="https://blossom.primal.net/f25cfc32102f0bfe6e5f284b922adbd3d97c1fdac75d6780a25400e40fe81fbf.png"> ## To summarize. That's a lot of data that came at you quick. I've compiled it all in a helpful table here for you to review at any time. This is the world at 2024, Q2: <img src="https://blossom.primal.net/033c016467fc061265366b6cd34769a37747374350cc5d864ede0bc4a1096886.png"> ## Base money concluded The following table gives you a complete summary of the fiat currencies, gold, silver, and Bitcoin figures used in this analysis, for this quarter. Please print it out if you like, it is meant to be a helpful, in-depth companion when fiat friends come asking. <img src="https://blossom.primal.net/2113d41187c71c6b833be7f5d0db14438fb4f4f9df4c519faaee5db9c27e831d.png"> Thank you for reading! If you enjoyed, please consider zapping, and you can also donate to my [BTCPay](https://donations.cryptovoices.com/) on [my website](https://www.porkopolis.io/) if you'd like to help keep this research going.