I disagree. I don’t think there are many investments at scale that deliver >25% annual returns based on pure productivity gains. Rather, most gains in the last 50+ years have been through financial engineering and monetary policy manipulation and poorly underwritten debt.

The actual productivity of most investments will be reasonably close to the rate of global GDP growth with some variation based on geographic characteristics and local resource density. There might be pockets of greater productivity BUT it won’t be centralized at scale like we have via these massive companies in public markets today. 

And every venture capital investment intends on flipping out to public markets in the end…same with private equity.

The Peter Thiel (Zero to One) thesis for venture capital is completely destroyed in a bitcoin standard.