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So I thought I would also throw my hat into the ring in the debate here. I do disagree on my expected outcome of Nostr but that's more my interpretations of where/what I expect to be in the future. Things like limited discoverability (no algorithms), a broad list of clients - many incomplete, and the need to filter out spam or curate is going to be any decentralized social media protocol's burden to bear. They can be improved, and criticizing them is valid, but that's kinda what I signed up for when I chose to enter the wild west of any non-centralized platform.

Things like data and processing power requirements handled by clients are still considerably under streaming HD video, so I can get they're inefficient but I feel like in the world of our bloated web it's not really noticeable in most cases.

The IP thing is a fair point, but it sort of is what it is. You can proxy your IP, but anywhere you go on the internet it'll be available to any server you're communicating with. Somebody shares a link in a twitter DM and they got your IP same as if the DM you an image on Nostr. Honestly Nostr users are probably safer than the average Twitter user from that sort of stuff because we're all at least somewhat tech savvy. Which brings me to what I think is the biggest hurdle for Nostr.

I can't see 'raw' Nostr getting popular with your average Joe, period. Key pairs and user chosen servers are a bit to far beyond the fray of what you can expect somebody to familiarize themselves with. I can pretty much guarantee 99% of the world will never know what a Nostr relay is. That said, with it's openness I can imagine it has a chance to continue to grow. 

It's already the case now, but especially when Ditto (by Soapbox/Alex Gleason) is finished we can be a part of the activity pub network, and if AT is ever opened up I'm sure we'll be a part of that too. Throw in content like RSS piped in, and that solves the problem of a lack of content and allows us to both simultaneously be in our own little corner and chatting with 'normies' on threads as if we were also a threads user at the same time.

Not to mention there's always a chance to have a "Threads" on Nostr, something that has a easy to join interface that hides private keys and such, but still allows users to interact with other Nostr users.

TLDR: I'm personally bullish on Nostr because it's very interwoven with the decentralized/federated space as a whole and doesn't need to take over the world to succeed IMO.

Sorry for the very long post. Basically summarized a previous blog post of mine and wanted to get my whole philosophy on it condensed.