Oddbean new post about | logout
 OK, so how do you know you've got the right sender? Like others are saying, if you can only trace the sender correctly in 1 of 15 transactions, you're not beating randomly guessing. You'll guess correctly 1 out of 15 tries, and you'll have no way to verify you were right. What's your methodology for verifying correctness on that 1 of 15? If you have that then you might have something, because if not then you've got no way to know which out of 15 was the correct guess.