Apples and oranges. I'd compare nostr to IPFS, Farcaster, bluesky or mastodon —IPFS being a good benchmark.

Nostr and Bitcoin have taproot in common, but are otherwise quite different.

Main issues: dev exodus, and devX is lagging behind peers. IPFS, for instance, has a dedicated community manager. The relay network is neglected; I hope new companies step in or Ditto takes off. Damus is still a great public asset, while it lasts.

User numbers are falling, retention is low (per nostr.band). Vertical growth seems unlikely without a major shift. Despite significant funding, nostr's sideways movement, says something’s wrong.  Nobody wants to acknowledge that, though, let alone fix it.  So I see that continuing.

Even if there’s a surge, nostr lacks the capacity to match competitors, who are steadily growing. I'd love to see Jack, Tidal, Ditto, or others make a client, or better infrastructure, or a popular new app (maybe AI-driven). For now, nostr relies on goodwill—hopefully that keeps it afloat as a space of freedom for a while yet.