Oddbean new post about | logout
 If Saylor's base scenario is correct, and I think it is, BTC's average yearly appreciation *between now and 2045* will be 29% year on year.

That means, if you borrow 0.5 BTC when the price is 50k, in 5 years time it can be expected to be 210k. So, to borrow 0.5 BTC worth 25k, you have to come up with 210 * 0.6 = 126 k in 5 years.

If that's financially possible, I want to know how because I want to do it too.

Not to mention, for me to lend you 0.5 BTC worth 25k that will be worth 105k in 5 years, risk free, you would have to pay me a hell of a lot more than that.

I don't see how any rational actor, be it a lender or a borrower, could do any of this. Especially if instead of borrowing 0.5 BTC at 30-40% interest, you can borrow 25k of fiat at a much lower interest. Even if rates really shoot up as in Saylor's medium-term scenario.