On one hand, better tech will make self-custody easier, somehow mitigating key loss. Also, I think Fedi styled custody will be important for saving on fees. Base layer custody will probly not be the norm, IMHO. Those who HODL >1 or 2 BTC today will have some important decisions to make: serve as a bank, hold deep storage, UTXO management. Over all, I think fees could make self-custody difficult for the average person who wants +/- $30K of BTC in his portfolio.

We will probably see some kind of scaling according to net worth of BTC (least to greatest wealth): Lightning, Liquid, Fedi (or some such), ETF, broker custody, self-custody.

Liquid isn't very popular now, but I see a lot of potential in it.