I wouldn’t personally purchase a home that expensive with only putting that much down. Obviously Bitcoin is doing better as an investment, but if you’re saying that people should rent (pay someone else’s mortgage-giving them equity instead of yourself) is a better move than owning, that’s not my experience. I rented shitty tiny apartments for the same price as my mortgage now. The rents have gone up and my mortgage is the same, leaving more money for Bitcoin. The market is fucked right now and if I had waited, I would have been priced out and probably would have never been able to own anything. There’s things you can do here like  converting garages into ADUs as rentals or overfitting solar panels and selling power back to grid/while also getting tax credits that factor into those calculations. 

 400k to 500k is the average home price right now. Does the mortgage payment you are comparing your apartment to include property taxes, maintenance, and insurance? Also how much interest has that mortgage owner paid over the years? How much down payment did they pay?

The math I calculated shows that the total amount you pay in excess of renting an apartment would give you a better return than buying a home. The trend is clear from this picture. What do you think will be the cost of a home priced in bitcoin in 4 years? Maybe 2.5? What about 8 years?

https://image.nostr.build/fc1d8df1e9d7a3ece9f70b3ec0d3cf6ac478279132a181f8e1951f43dd4bfeca.jpg 

 Yeah all included (taxes, utilities, everything). I would get half the square footage and live in a much more sketchy area if I had to rent right now.  Again, yeah it would be nice if we could have put it all in bitcoin, but we need to live somewhere and it happens to be cheaper for us to own where we are and when we got in. 

 In eight years, I suspect you're net worth would be more if you rent than buy.

I compared my parent"s house in southern California to gold in 1989(the year they bought) Gold would have done better, so renting + stacking the difference is a better bet if your net worth is your only value.

If you live in a van and stack sats, your net worth will be even higher.

If you live in a tent and stack sats, you'll be super rich.

If you live under a bridge and stack sats, you will become as rich as you can possibly be.

Money isn't the only value though. Maybe living under a bridge means you're worth 100 million in 8 years, but owning a house means your worth 50 million. I would choose the house, because of the marginal theory of return, but value is subjective. If I was single, I would live in a van. 

 Bahaha yeah there’s so much to take into account. I don’t think at this point in my life, I could go back to van life 😂 

 I was being a little tongue & cheeck, but money isn't the only value. Sometimes, it's easy for bitcoiners to forget this because we spend so much of our time thinking about money. ☺️ 

 Imo you are right but there is a caveat. 

If the mortgage holder could borrow against their real estate with a HELCO and use the credit to buy Bitcoin then they’re accessing Bitcoin sooner and still not paying ≈ 1 million usd in rent over those 30 years to live.

I would buy the Bitcoin vs put a down payment on a house if I had the 100k and no Bitcoin. At this point the Bitcoin has at least an order of magnitude more upside than real estate. 

 If you take out a HELOC, dont you just end up paying more interest for longer? Because now you owe 500k instead of 400k.

https://image.nostr.build/c56914fb9d7d660535d92d7ca1775a0c96a47cd971cfe8f619c197a353b00f1b.png 

 Yeah but you’re using that debt to gain control of Bitcoin, which I expect the purchasing power gains over 30 years would crush the interest expense. 

The game in fiat is stack debt that can’t be margin called and can be paid off slowly. 100k in fiat debt won’t be shit in 30 years. That will be the cost of a beat up used car or something 😂 

 I get what you're saying. I just don't like the idea of using debt and playing fiat games with my house on the line haha 

 If I felt good about my cash flow and didn’t have any Bitcoin I would max out my HELCO and smash buy as much corn as I could 😂 

Luckily I’m not in that position. 

 If you had better cash flow you would just buy more corn instead of dealing with the headache that comes with all the paperwork haha 

 But being able to buy 100k today on borrowed money is very different than DCAing 100k over 3-5 years. 

 That’s true but I don’t know enough about HELOCs. There has to be some additional cost. Otherwise the standard 20% down payment would be pointless. My guess is that your interest rate on the loan goes up as you take on more risk with a HELOC. 

 You can only tap into your equity and I don’t think you can do so right away. I’m not 100% sure how they work either though I’ve never done one. 

 Okay I just looked it up. Typically a new homebuyer can take out a HELOC 30-45 days after close, access up to 80% of their equity value and payback over up to 20 years 😂😂😂😂😂 

 My guess is you’d have two loans then and the second loan will probably have a higher interest rate because it’s considered more risky ? 

 Internet said it’s a separate loan, usually variable rate, but typically a similar rate to the initial mortgage. They can be fixed rate too. They can be paid off early. And they can be refinanced. The banks want as much debt as possible no wonder they make these things so sweet. 

 Hes wrong because he needs a roof over his head no matter what, and you can’t live inside your bitcoin. 

 It’s buying vs renting though 

 But the minimum down payment is not 100k, it’s 17,500. So he could still “buy” 82,500 worth of bitcoin, when purchasing the house, which seems to be lacking in the analysis. So the opportunity cost is not as great as is indicated, AND increasing cash flows needed to service the rent are not included vs a fixed rate mortgage payment, which is assumed to be covered by cashflow for the life of the loan. 

 Very good point. Rent is sure to increase massively over the duration of a 30 year fixed. 

 And as I said, everyone needs a home, so the personal value of owning a home, becoming part of a neighborhood/community, and the security of not being forced out at the whim of an owner, is also lacking. Not to mention moving costs, security deposits lost(effectively a 13th month of rent dependent on an owners willingness to renew a lease), lack of autonomy over one’s lifestyle(want pets? Need owner permission) are all lacking.

The calculus is flawed. 

 Can you show how my math is flawed with actual numbers?

Show me how putting 100k in bitcoin and renting an apartment will make me less wealthy than putting 100k down on a house and paying a mortgage over a 30 year time period. 

 That’s a false comparison, because as your own numbers said, you only need to put 17,500 down to mortgage the house. So if you have 100k to spend, you can actually buy the house AND bitcoin, it’s not either/or you can buy 82,500$ worth of bitcoin, and pay the mortgage. 

 That’s fine you can use $17,500 instead. Assume that’s all the money I have. How will my net worth make me better off buying instead of renting 30 years from now? Show me the numbers 

In my initial post, the down payment was $37k and the difference wasn’t even close. 

 If that’s all the money you have you don’t qualify for the house in the first place. 

 Yes I do with FHA on a $500k home 

 If you qualify for FHA with a 3.5% deposit on a 500k loan at 2.5% interest, there are a lot of assumptions to to make about HOA fees, property taxes, PMI, existing debt levels. I made assumptions of 2700/y in property tax’s and 2400/y insurance and mortgage insurance of .8% and no existing debt, suggesting you make ~90k/year and will be paying just about 28k/year on the mortgage. 

After taxes, and mortgage you should have somewhere around 2500/month left over. Buy your food, and other stuff like phone or utilities and you probably have about 1000-1500$ left over each month. 

Save in bitcoin. 

I think this scenario is totally unrealistic. If you’re making 90k per year as a single male, have only saved 17,500 dollars, and are deciding between buying a house or buying bitcoin with your ENTIRE savings, you possibly could have recently acquired a very secure position and are looking to leverage that job security ASAP but most likely have been spending too much. If it’s the former, you could decide to buy the bitcoin now  and then proceed to buy the house in one year, or vice versa. If it’s the latter, you most likely can’t budget properly to afford the house or the bitcoin anyways. 

 In my original post, I calculated that rent would increase 3.2% annually which is the average. 

 Missed that. My b 

 The rub here is that you still need a place to live. And so you’re going to spend ~28,000 (2,350/m average for a single family home, rough number) per year to live somewhere no matter what, which means over thirty years you’re dropping almost 850k on somewhere to live that you don’t own.

Now, how much do you value not HAVING to move when some owner wants to take their home back? This also assumes the rent doesn’t increase over 30 years, highly unlikely. Is that worth the 100-200-250k you’ll spend on the house? Will the house appreciate that amount?

Houses are good investments if you live in them, because their not investments their expenses. 

 Please refer to my initial post on this subject. Note that it's an older post so the numbers may be different today but not enough to change my conclusion.


nostr:note1al0dnhtrdllmd9p9knvmllr55eqm0u73d580tv2ngpa8wcuzt0tshtfr20  

 Buying property as an investment when bitcoin exists is certainly a poor choice, but in the post I referred to you speak about purchasing a home, which is a different calculus all together. 

 Also, a depreciating CAGR is not included in the analysis, this seems like a straw man argument.

a more realistic analysis is not purchasing a triplex investment property but just leveraging oneself to buy a home and then proceeding to lump sum your cash after the mortgage comes through, servicing the mortgage at minimums while continuing to DCA, and possibly leveraging appreciating home values by lump summing that into bitcoin when possible vs renting over 30 years. 

 The scenario I chose was based on my current situation. Single man that wants to leverage real estate. A triplex allows me to live in one of the units while renting out the other two.

Idk what a depreciating CAGR is but it seems like you’re talking about how you can depreciate the value of the property for tax purposes. Even if you took that into consideration, I don’t think it would close the 72 million dollar gap between you and the renter who bought Bitcoin instead of a house. 

 in my neighborhood renting a home is 50% less than the cost of a mortgage with 20% down. just because everyone else is making illogical decisions doesn't mean I have to. 

 While that's the average home price, most people I know have just lowered their standards or to continued to rent. I know people who purchased home a few years ago just to be to stressed out over (even with pay raises) inflation has outpaced them and their planning to get out of a home and pick up an apartment for a little while at least. 

Some of these people have been deferring having children for housing/financial reasons. I'm not sure this is abnormal for people in their mid-late 20s. I don't know anyone that has the ability to put more than about 30k down at best, most are under 20k.