Tropic Trouble Brewing In Gulf Of Mexico Could "Slingshot" Towards Offshore Oil Rigs

Tropic Trouble Brewing In Gulf Of Mexico Could "Slingshot" Towards Offshore Oil Rigs 

            The latest Tropical Outlook from the https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
 indicates a 70% probability of tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean Sea over the next seven days. Forecast models predict that a tropical storm could develop early next week, potentially making landfall along the Gulf Coast—the location of America's top offshore oil/gas rigs and refineries on the mainland—by late next week. 

"Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a very broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system during the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week," NHC wrote in an update on Sunday morning. 

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/two_atl_7d2.png?itok=xACBzu5G


Since Thursday, we have been monitoring potential tropical development via various weather models because this potential storm threatens US oil/gas infrastructure. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/something-brewing-gulf-mexico-confidence-grows-cyclone-activity-next-week

The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore wrote on X, "One of the things to consider with this week's pending tropical threat is where the "slingshot" sets up.  The slingshot is the upper low (blue) that could ventilate the system first and aid in intensification, then slingshot it into the coast.  The stronger it is at landfall the deeper inland  the more intense parts of it get.  Guidance has much to sort out with all the players coming together.  We should have an invest soon as NHC has issued a 10% area in 48hrs and marked a starting point."


One of the things to consider with this week’s pending tropical threat is where the “slingshot” sets up. The slingshot is the upper low (blue) that could ventilate the system first and aid in intensification, then slingshot it into the coast. The stronger it is at landfall the… https://t.co/QCdYVtRAuX

— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1837854153294377186?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Washington Post's Matthew Cappucci wrote on X that a hurricane will likely form in the Gulf of Mexico...  


A hurricane is likely in the Gulf of Mexico. Stay tuned in in Florida, Alabama, Mississippi or Louisiana!
I’ll have an update in the https://twitter.com/MyRadarWX?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

— Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) https://twitter.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1837860458310639989?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

"Mike's Weather PageOvernight GFS/EURO ensembles on <a href="http://weathernerds.org" rel="nofollow">http://weathernerds.org</a>. Huge consistency. EURO catching up to the GFS. Timing here Friday. Many already make landfall by then. Getting real Florida IMO," Mike's Weather Page wrote on X. 


Overnight GFS/EURO ensembles on https://t.co/j6cXc9FWby

— Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) https://twitter.com/tropicalupdate/status/1837837308646904155?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Landfall in Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and or Louisiana? 


While uncertainty remains, there is a focusing of tropical tracks in the eastern Gulf late in the week.
Ensemble "orb" guidance is leaning toward a faster emergence into the Gulf, with states like Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi & Louisiana on watch...
Old run ➡️ new run https://t.co/vRiQnbGXKn

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1837681121578176801?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

About 15% of the nation's total crude production capacity via offshore rigs is in the cone uncertainty. Also, about 45% of the US refining capacity resides at major refineries in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Via Bloomberg data...

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Snag_15f0e23d.png?itok=qj7KtQQN


There's a high probability the forecast could can change in the next five days. 

      https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden

Sun, 09/22/2024 - 16:55

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