Federal, State and Local Fiscal Policy and the Economy
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Fiscal policy increased U.S. GDP growth by 0.1 percentage point in Q2 2024; GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.0%; decline in tax collections since 2022 and increased investment from Inflation Reduction and CHIPS Acts raised FIM by 0.4 percentage point; federal and state purchases added 0.2 percentage point; pandemic-era transfers decreased FIM by 0.5 percentage point; FIM expected to be neutral in Q4 2024, then negative through Q2 2026; projections assume extension of 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions; Bureau of Economic Analysis revisions had minimal impact on FIM.

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https://www.brookings.edu/articles/1789104/