On the first part: the goal is likely to scare big brazilian accounts of influencers, politicians, etc to stop using X. Bc their identitt is known and they could easily be fined. They then expect brazilian users to follow them to another platform.

On the second part: he did ban VPNs briefly, ordering they be removed from the play store and the app store, but then went back on it, but maintained that if people use them to access X, then they could be fined. So it is indeed, very possible that VPNs will be banned at some point. We are at the mercy of this judge's whims...