It’s time to re-evaluate U.S. equities allocation
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Michael Nairne discusses the need to reassess U.S. equities allocation due to high valuations and market concentration; Goldman Sachs forecasts a 3% annual return for the S&P 500 over the next 10 years, with a range of -1% to 7%; Vanguard estimates returns between 3.2% and 5.2%; Research Affiliates predicts 6.5% and 3.3% for large-cap U.S. stocks; J.P. Morgan and State Street forecast 6.7% and 6.0%, respectively; the average expert forecast is 5.0%, contrasting with the S&P 500's 15.4% return over the past decade; historical CAPE ratios indicate current valuation at 36.6, warning of potential future losses; recommendations include diversifying into segments with better values, using low-cost ETFs, and considering active global equity managers; despite high valuations, there remains a possibility for high single-digit returns over the next decade.

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https://www.investmentexecutive.com/insight/columns/its-time-to-re-evaluate-u-s-equities-allocation/