Oddbean new post about | logout
 Very much disagree with this, it’s a pretty naive take.

- Australia’s CBDC was outsourced to the private sector, mostly the banks, and it’s successfully passed the pilot phase - so much for not giving up their debt creation, they’re working hand in glove with central banks
- Privacy doesn’t override shit for normies. I’ll just point to Snowden’s revelations as evidence if any is needed. If CBDCs are tied to UBI they will jump in head first with no consideration for the implications on privacy and only later look for outside routes when they understand reality.
- We always had gold as a sovereign currency, no-one used it because it wasn’t fit for purpose in the digital age. Sovereign alone isn’t enough, it needs to work for what people/institutions want to use it for.
- There are already functional cross-border CBDCs (Singapore-China) and others have been successfully piloted (read BIS)
- Digital Currency already exists in every fiat system. It’s not that different to a CBDC, that’s just amalgamating them into a unified system. 

If post WW2 monetary order was a design choice, what makes you think they’ll make a design choice for something they can’t control? Listen to saifedean or Lyn discussing the uptake of fiat / exit from gold standard in WW1 - once one nation went they all did because game theory effectively forced them to as you can’t win a war against a money printer if you don’t have one yourself. 

We’ve got what, 1 country which has decided to take the hard route of getting out from under the IMF and they’re not even done yet - everyone else just keeps sucking that teat. Even Milei is going begging to them.

We’re not going to see CBDCs on Bitcoin-backed fedimints - this is delusional. 

Bitcoin will be used but not in this way. It will be the hedge system between the USD world and the BRICS world for countries that can’t/wont go all in on either and simply occupying that position will see it eventually eat both (not Gresham’s law - you’ve made the common mistake of inverting it). It will also form the black market currency for individuals for any transaction people want to make outside the government’s purview which initially just replaces cash but will eat all the usecases they try to impose their dystopia on.

To say you’re unafraid is fine. I’m not afraid of money either. But I see what they’re trying to achieve and given there is no greater prize than control of the money (per Rothschild himself) I think it’s pretty shortsighted to just claim this is “doom-circle-jerk analysis”. 

They ARE playing for sheepstations, they’re not going to fuck this up coming from incumbency against a rebel network with 1% uptake.

Bitcoin will win eventually but CBDCs are coming and freedom is going when they do. https://i.nostr.build/QO5q.jpg