The yield curve has been inverted for 18 months without a downturn - but the famed indicator isn't wrong, and a recession is near, strategist says
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The yield curve has been inverted for 18 months, signaling a recession is near. The inverted Treasury yield curve, which occurs when the yield on the 2-year US Treasury surpasses the 10-year Treasury, has correctly predicted every recession since 1955. Despite the resilience of the US economy, a downturn is still expected, with recessions historically taking up to 28 months to officially start after being signaled by the yield curve and leading economic indicators. Chief investment strategist Paul Dietrich warns that investors should be skeptical of those who claim a new bull market has begun and that a recession won't occur. Dietrich is among the more bearish forecasters on Wall Street, having previously predicted a mild recession this year that could cause stocks to drop by as much as 49%.



https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-yield-curve-inversion-economy-hard-landing-indicator-stocks-2024-4