Oddbean new post about login | logout It’s getting pretty dicey here in #China. Govt too is throwing additional firepower and nothing has stuck as of yet.
Interesting. Would love to read your thoughts about the current situation in China.
When you have time have a read through my post history. That’ll give you a decent sense of the current situation. Been slammed this week and haven’t been able to provide updates. Will do so as soon as I’m up from under the deluge of work. Based on #Shanghai for reference.
Wow awesome, will do.
Thanks, I will! Would love to cover the situation in China in one of my next substack episodes. Hit me up if you like to share your thoughts with my audience.
My understanding is that the government has done a policy shift. They used to fund business but since central planners struggle to allocate capital, they have an over supply of manufacturing / real estate. It doesn't make sense to throw money at manufacturers / builders, because that would just increase supply further, so they're trying to create domestic consumers, bail out the stock market instead. If Trump does protectionism against China shit could go really bad for them I think. I don't know if anyone else cares to take advantage. If they start dumping product in the west it reduces pain in China but would destroy manufacturing in the west. Then when everyone's out of business they can raise prices again. Or western companies just move to China.
In terms of #China, what you've laid out above is pretty much the exact framing which has been presented throughout the traditional media. A better way to put what is going on is as follows. China is aggressively attempting to fundamentally restructure its economy away from debt fueled growth in favor of higher value added manufacturing such as robotics and the like. There's no guarantee that the conversation process will work, but it is a priority of the government to move quickly away from growth driven by either property or investment into infrastructure. How this would then impact the various global economies is unclear. China is only thinking about China. It is, in my opinion, the burden of other countries to recognize how it is China is evolving and adapt. So far, I've yet to see any country do this. I hope that this helps.
It does, and I will review your work too.