I usually jot down a few notes to share with everyone. Maybe Friday is a good day to go a little deeper.

The next chapter of global politics is being written on the battlefields of Ukraine and the Middle East, trade politics between the US and China, AI, the debt in Washington, and probably another half dozen themes whose true impact we won’t truly feel before five to ten years from now. What isn’t yet clear is the title of this chapter, or at least the predominant theme or event that accelerates the world down a given path. Thinking about possible futures in this way predictably elicits another question; what was that theme or event that defined the ending chapter. There are a lot of candidates, but I believe that 9/11 was the event that led us to the world we inhabit today.

In the spirit of transparency, I feel obliged to acknowledge that 9/11 was an intensely personal event for me. I grew up on Long Island, and among the many acquaintances of mine murdered that day are three people I grew up with quite closely. My professional life in the years following 9/11 made the experience all the more visceral. Distance has allowed me to see things more clearly. My thoughts on the actions the US undertook in the years following the attack have evolved, in some cases significantly, but my thinking about these events will always be colored by the deaths of people I remember vividly to this day.

Endless States of Emergency

The Biden administration’s recent announcement, “Notice on the Continuation of the National Emergency With Respect to Persons Who Commit, Threaten to Commit, or Support Terrorism,” is emblematic of the erosion of governance that has plagued the years following 9/11. This order has roots in an executive order signed on 23 September 2001, just days after the attack. The continuation of this “national emergency” reveals how much the state has grown dependent on “emergency powers.” The nearly 1,000% increase in the use of sanctions by the Treasury Department since 9/11, an indulgence that laid the foundation for a slow but steady trend of de-dollarization, is but one consequence. And then there’s the Patriot Act….

Endless Wars and Regional Destabilization

 The 1979 Camp David Accords brought a modicum of stability to the Middle East, or at least served as the foundation for a new balance of power. Despite war between Iran and Iraq, civil war in Lebanon, the region’s center held firm until post-9/11 events challenged that stability. The first sprout of that instability was the US invasion of Iraq, leaving a vacuum that provided actors opposed to the status quo a stage on which to act out that opposition. This also laid a firm foundation for instability to spread following an act of desperation by a young Tunisian in December 2010. 

The Arab Spring and Civil Wars

I’m open to discussion, but I believe US policy directly contributed to the chaos of the Arab Spring, the subsequent civil wars, migrations, and shifts of balance of power that persist to this day. Among the corner stones of regional stability was the US-Egypt relationship. Obama’s decision to publicly support the removal of Husni Mubarak – and hence the entire military establishment – from power caused irreparable harm to the relationship, now with that government functionally back in power. The decision to intervene militarily in Libya in a civil war that persists to this day kicked off an immigration crisis that has destabilized European politics. The decision to intervene – but not decisively – in the Syrian civil war ignited by the Arab Spring only exacerbated the immigration crisis in Europe while allowing ISIS to take root and flourish.

Is That It?

Well no. The Syrian civil war allowed Russia to gain a foothold in the region, gaining combat experience that would embolden them to invade Ukraine. US support for protest movements destabilized relationship with traditional allies, especially in the Gulf region. On September 10, 2001, would any of you have envisioned a Chinese port in the UAE? All of these, and not to minimize the immense human suffering, the broken men and women, and trillions of dollars wasted are all legacies of our response to the tragedy of 9/11.

Lesson Learned?

Not sure, but it was a tremendously costly chain of errors that we all need to consider as we decide how to address the challenges of this next chapter. But maybe a political consensus acknowledging that it was our own decisions that put us in the difficult position we find ourselves today would serve as the cathartic reset we need to thrive into the 21st century. Squishy thinking? Maybe, but when people ask me what bitcoin did for me, my response is always the same, “it cured my cynicism.” Really, it did.

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