April 2024 update to TIGER: A feeble recovery characterized by multiple divergences
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The latest update of the Brookings-FT Tiger indexes shows that global growth has flatlined, although there are glimmers of a positive turn in some countries’ economic fortunes in the year ahead. The U.S. and India have maintained strong growth momentum while China’s economy is slowing down. Germany continues flirting with recession while Italy and Spain have performed better. Equity markets are surging even in some countries whose economic performance remains sub-par. Household and business confidence is improving in many countries despite geopolitical stresses and unsettled domestic politics. The main risks to global growth are geopolitical tensions, domestic political turmoil, and difficult-to-quell inflation. The U.S. economy is resilient with a strong labor market and rising equity prices. Japan is set for another year of positive but low growth. The United Kingdom faces limited growth due to inflation, lack of fiscal maneuver, and troubled domestic politics. China’s economy is floundering but stimulus measures are stabilizing growth. India is likely to have another year of strong performance. Indonesia is another standout performer. Russia's economy is durable but sanctions and war effort limit growth. Argentina, Mexico, and Brazil face domestic political complications. Low-income countries in debt distress have better growth prospects due to falling policy interest rates. Geopolitical rifts, political instability, trade protectionism, climate change, and inadequate protection for vulnerable populations and countries are major challenges. Policymakers need to reduce policy uncertainty and boost business and consumer confidence. Central banks need to focus on finishing battles against inflation.

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https://www.brookings.edu/articles/april-2024-update-to-tiger-a-feeble-recovery-characterized-by-multiple-divergences/