Oddbean new post about login | logout No, that will not happen. But it does have it usecase for now.
It already has. DNM has mostly gone to XMR. Even the Italian government reported that the mafias have started using it. This doesn't really help its image with the public, however. I'm not sure if that changed again recently, though.
Money for mafia mobs doesn’t mean “in any market”. I don’t see Monero being used for coffee payments, I don’t see it as a 401k asset, I don’t see it as a store of value either. That does’t mean it lacks any value at all. As I said - it has it’s use case. I/. Useful Tool. But for your own sake, do not fall for the idea that it will replace Bitcoin. That can’t happen and will not happen.
Dark net/parallel/shadow markets are a market. So, of any market, monero has displaced bitcoin in one. Of course, it's not even marginally close to replacing Btc in the normal economy. As you say, that's not It's use case. It exists for more severe adversarial environments, where the bitcoin graveyard grows.
I find it hilarious that you think everyone is using bitcoin to buy their starbucks coffee. It's a terrible currency to use with any frequency especially for small payments. 99.9% of the world is using fiat.
Have you ever heard of lightning network? I do pay for a coffee or a lunch on a regular basis. For example, here in Czech republic, thousands of restaurants and coffee shops accepts payments via app called “qerko” which accepts LN payments.
Yes, 95% of lightning users are on custodial wallets and LSPs that can see everything. It's used as a glorified Paypal for most (and worse because almost no adoption in comparison)