Oddbean new post about | logout
 I cannot imagine how stupid someone needs to be to short bitcoin after the halving and election

Like bruh at least do it next year wtf are you thinking  
 Oh shit. I gotta get ready for the 94 GIF. 
 Day 1 options are definitely upping the likelihood that we hit 100k in 2024. 
https://m.primal.net/MbRA.jpg 
 I always keep my leverage play money separate and have rules about how much of it goes into a single bet. Far too easy to get overconfident after a win streak and blow it all. I have over 95% win rate on lnmarkets and it takes around 10 wins to recover stack size from 1 rekt. 

That is with a safety net in reserve so you can place the same size bet again right after that L. I can only imagine if you bet your whole stack on a "sure thing" what win % it would take to recover.