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 Lightning custodian has less attack surface. ECash has all the vulnerabilities of custodial lightning (rug, because it is a lightning wallet) plus additional risks of hacking, technical error, and unverified issuance (fractional reserve).

I'd love to be convinced otherwise.  
 I've built several "Lightning custodians" myself and this is not true. All "additional risks" you're mentioning are equally or even more true for *every* custodian.

Ecash introduces no additional risk, except that transactions can't be reversed. In return, you enjoy censorship resistance as a user. 
 

I have to take your word for it in regards to the technical security. But it still looks like a mint runs on top of a lightning wallet, which has the risks of screwing up something and losing lightning funds *and* the risk of screwing up the mint (I have lost small amounts to mint bugs or operator error).

It never occurred to me that custodial lightning wallet could lie about "issuance". I suppose they could in a Ponzi kind of way, siphoning funds as a "slow rug". I think you have a point. 

I'm trying to think through some of the privacy and anti- censorship benefits. If there's a list somewhere or a podcast where you discussed it, I'm very interested. I'm very optimistic, but also don't see it as a scaling panacea. 

https://primal.net/e/note1gwev8mgqf7x0wms94mw4l0knm79s3l00lh99dc7wctfxknsdfpts7tlxxk