The yield curve is just about uninverted. At the market close today, the 2-year Treasury yielded 3.76% and the 10-year Treasury also yielded 3.76%. 

"One of the surest signs of recession is an inverted yield curve that stops being inverted. I’ve read arguments why this time might be different. But I wouldn’t bet against this signal. Especially when it’s accompanied by rising unemployment, falling commodities and falling cyclical stocks."

By the way, I’ve mentioned this before, but my favorite place for checking government bond yields is on this page at Bloomberg ( https://substack.com/redirect/58ee4e7c-42c4-4aa2-907d-f0e17057bbd4?j=eyJ1IjoiMTJncHEyIn0.TFNucVxWIOzkrdGN_XAFc_rUZpuRqJ99sIKtsNPoFvA ). You can toggle between five different countries. And for each country, you can see short term, medium term and long term rates, plus inflation-protected rates." Bonner Research

 

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