Oddbean

'Contours Of A Trump Peace Deal': Kremlin Insiders Discuss Putin's Initial Reaction 'Contours Of A Trump Peace Deal': Kremlin Insiders Discuss Putin's Initial Reaction In a lengthy investigative report, Reuters has presented what it says is Russian President Vladimir Putin's initial reaction to the incoming Trump administration's plans to pursue ceasefire negotiations leading to a final end of the Ukraine war, which reached its 1,000th day this week. As Putin "eyes contours of a Trump peace deal," five sources privy to Kremlin thinking https://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-putin-ascendant-ukraine-eyes-060413338.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALgjJchpcOKfr0DG5ZzQuJljlAKvP8R2qpntIS5DzXqCUGt1hS1H8yttF9AmFBHloMKp2p02Vqi3yHl1UUCK8HVQjUFwqxaVuCXLauziKToDvMcCRLMqObOjm1NoQf3XMtFPztrEdeis6BQrOiLohSyDVUH_yNc0ciBWZW-JJKgO that Putin is "open" to discussing a ceasefire with Donald Trump, but will reject giving up territory acquired in Ukraine's east - namely the annexed Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. A key sticking point will also be that Kiev totally abandons ambitions to join NATO. The Wall Street Journal revealed earlier this month that the current options https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/musk-says-time-warmonger-profiteers-nod-trump-ukraine-peace-plan all involve imposing a 'freeze' on the war, which to Kiev's dismay would involve "cementing Russia’s seizure of roughly 20 percent of Ukraine" while imposing a 20-year suspension on Ukraine pursuing NATO membership. And now, https://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-putin-ascendant-ukraine-eyes-060413338.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALgjJchpcOKfr0DG5ZzQuJljlAKvP8R2qpntIS5DzXqCUGt1hS1H8yttF9AmFBHloMKp2p02Vqi3yHl1UUCK8HVQjUFwqxaVuCXLauziKToDvMcCRLMqObOjm1NoQf3XMtFPztrEdeis6BQrOiLohSyDVUH_yNc0ciBWZW-JJKgO , "In the first detailed reporting of what President Putin would accept in any deal brokered by Trump, the five current and former Russian officials said the Kremlin could broadly agree to freeze the conflict along the front lines." https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/trumpptnz.jpg?itok=49U3q15o The Kremlin is believed less interested in a short-term truce, fearing that it would just be used to rearm Ukraine, and that the same problems which caused the war would persist. Putin said at the Valdai discussion group weeks ago, "If there is no neutrality, it is difficult to imagine the existence of any good-neighborly relations between Russia and Ukraine." "Why? Because this would mean that Ukraine will be constantly used as a tool in the wrong hands and to the detriment of the interests of the Russian Federation," he added. Thus from Moscow's viewpoint, a solid and lasting peace deal would permanently address those elements which could lead to resumption of future conflict. Putin had emphasized a deal must reflect "realities" on the ground. "Putin has already said that freezing the conflict will not work in any way," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Reuters on Tuesday. "And the missile authorization is a very dangerous escalation on the part of the United States." Perhaps the most important part of the Reuters report is seen in https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-ascendant-ukraine-eyes-contours-trump-peace-deal-2024-11-20/ : While Russia will not tolerate Ukraine joining NATO, or the presence of NATO troops on Ukrainian soil, it is open to discussing security guarantees for Kyiv, according to the five current and former officials. Other Ukrainian concessions the Kremlin could push for include Kyiv agreeing to limit the size of its armed forces and committing not to restrict the use of the Russian language, the people said. This certainly creates a diplomatic opening. Ukraine officials are demanding robust security guarantees agreed to by Russia and backed by the West. They will especially press this point if Kiev is forced to abandon its NATO membership aspirations. Mostly likely this would center on locking in security guarantees backed by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council: Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States. Importantly, a Russian official cited in the Reuters report acknowledged there will likely be no agreement unless Ukraine is granted security guarantees, but that for Moscow it all hinges on one thing: "The question is how to avoid a deal that locks the West into a possible direct confrontation with Russia one day." But with two months still to go with the Biden administration, and his hawkish national security officials bent on constant escalation (recklessness which is now being paralleled in the UK's https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/stocks-slump-ukraine-fires-uk-storm-shadow-missiles-russia launched on Russian territory), will the region even make it to Jan.20 before exploding into bigger NATO-Russia war? JUST IN: 🇷🇺🇺🇸 Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says Russia is waiting for a proposal from US President-elect Trump to end the war in Ukraine. "Every politician who claims to be for peace, not for war, deserves attention." https://t.co/zboOVRkZAu — BRICS News (@BRICSinfo) https://twitter.com/BRICSinfo/status/1857529980613214527?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Moon of Alabama has observed of the latest escalatory policies issued from https://www.moonofalabama.org/ : U.S. president Joe Biden was found to be too senile to stand for re-election. But that does not hinder the powers that be to let him launch world war III. After 'allowing' https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/11/us-to-allow-atacms-use-on-russia-to-prolong-war-in-ukraine.html ballistic missiles onto targets in Russia the Biden administration is adding largely prohibited antipersonnel mines into the mix. Over 160 countries, including Ukraine, have signed treaties which prohibit the use of antipersonnel mines. During his campaign Biden had spoken against the use of such weapons. Ukraine is still vowing to fight on, despite all the reports of President-elect Trump's plan to push hard for peace. Zelensky on Wednesday said his country "will not rest until every last Russian soldier is ejected from its territory - based on the borders it gained after the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union." https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden Wed, 11/20/2024 - 13:05 https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/contours-trump-peace-deal-kremlin-insiders-discuss-putins-initial-reaction