Oddbean new post about login | logout yes bitwise is launching an ethereum etf i'm bitcoin first but not bitcoin only and if that's upsetting i'll take the heat. replies / dms open. fwiw i think bitcoin and ethereum are completely different things. i know it can be super annoying when eth maxis are like "eth is even more sound than bitcoin!" but nobody takes that seriously. bitcoin is undeniably king as decentralized non-government money and that's not really up for debate imo the question is around whether bitcoin wants to swallow the full range of public computing needs or leave room for the non core use cases (everything outside of sovereign money). i mean, stablecoins are undeniably a thing. non-custodial trading (uniswap) is also undeniably a thing. i'm very happy that bitcoin hasn't morphed to make any of those things too easy on bitcoin. making stablecoins easier means making general token issuance easier. making non-custodial trading easier on bitcoin means more MEV risk on bitcoin. i'm happy that those experiments are playing out outside of bitcoin. maybe where i differ with many bitcoiners is that i am happy that those experiments are still happening. anyways, happy to discuss this more. didn't want to seem like i'm hiding from this issue.
After listening to your citadel dispatch chat I'm disappointed to hear this; ethical earnings on a hard money standard is difficult. Guess everyone still has to get burned and learn the hard way...the cycle repeats
sorry to disappoint. anything in particular about the above that bothers you? just launching an eth etf to begin with?
ETH is more sound than Bitcoin is taken seriously by thousands of fringe entry participants
Those entry participants need to touch the stove and find out. I guess it’d be nice to shoehorn them correctly the first time but you’d have to handcuff all marketing and interfere with markets heavily. Free-er markets is the correct choice.
I’m hopeful that one day bitcoin supports drivechain (bip300/bip301) to allow a real evm compatible layer2 to be supported by Bitcoin. I’ll keep holding my Ethereum, but I think Bitcoin can address its long term miner incentivized security concerns by enabling this type of capability.
Gfy ❤️
Curious your thoughts on the following questions: Do you not see issuance of ETFs for POS networks as a centralizing move? Resulting in all your MEV related concerns flooding to the only truly decentralized network? How can the value of an ETF reflect accurately the underlying when no one knows the true supply of the underlying asset?
centralization concerns are real but when etfs hold a small percentage of the supply (gold etfs hold 6% of all gold supply; for bitcoin so far it’s about 3-4%) i don’t know if the launch of eth etfs fundamentally change the dynamics that much
If the ETH ETFs support staking, it will.
Will a portion of fees from this ETF also go to open source devs? Same as with the Bitcoin ETF or different recipients?
will have to work through the details but most likely yes. likely through this entity (https://twitter.com/ProtocolGuild)
Bitcoin should keep the use case of money only or at least mostly and improve on that, LN + other projects. Ethereum use case is none, uniswap and other defi stuff is all just gambling and highly inefficient one, eth is already dead, with the etf, development and hype narratives are dead, either way, bitcoin will have to compete with every asset that is SoV or MoE, in every battleground, that includes ETFs. Eth is not even a concern for Bitcoin, Bitcoin targets are Gold and USD.
i don't necessarily disagree with most of what you're saying here. but even if most of the stuff that trades on uniswap is just gambling non-custodial trading itself is a good idea. we would want the world to move more towards stablecoin + non-custodial trading rather than the existing custodial exchange paradigm.
I am not sophisticted enough to know but this looks like a way for market makers to play paper games with the Eth/BTC trade to suppress the price of #₿ Major political string pull vibes
i think of ETFs are mostly a vehicle that brings public market liquidity (stock exchange trading liquidity) to bitcoin's market. it's like an IPO like thing. the asset is the same. liquidity around it changes a lot. bitcoin's price went up a lot since the ETF moment and i think it's a rational upward pricing by the market liking the same asset even more with more liquidity
" When the correlation between the two temporarily weakens, i.e., one crypto moves up while the other moves down, the pairs trade would involve shorting the outperforming crypto and longing the underperforming one, betting that the "spread" between the two will eventually converge. The divergence within a pair can be caused by temporary supply/demand shifts, large buy/sell orders for one crypto, reactions to significant news about a project or company, and so on. "
👎
Running a business and refusing to take people's money is a bad way to run a business. Give people what they want and stack sats 🤷♂️
This is kinda where I'm at. Also a big difference between this and something like Casa, where their ETH product is actively taking away development time.
I had thought of Casa in comparison to Bitwise. Casa probably has to deal with Ethereum custody directly for their products, so I can see why it's turning into a huge burden for them. I remember that @Jameson Lopp has done a lot of work into Ethereum self custody and node running. Bitwise would get someone like Coinbase to do that part for them, so it makes sense for them to wrap an ETF around it like they did with Bitcoin. Is this on the right track, @hong?
"ETH is actively taking away development time" 😂 Did you know that it's possible to hire more engineers and buy more development time?
If all the Eth people had a similar message, I.e. - “bitcoin is of prime importance and its success is paramount, oh by the way we’re messing around over here with this ethereum thing which is a centralized premined science fair project, you’re welcome to join us as we explore these new things” … that would be great. But alas the eth community is riven with scammers charlatans and hype men that are either delusional or malevolent or both. Surely not all are like this but it seems like the dominant strain. I’m town between, “shitcoins have been a great smokescreen for Bitcoin as it matures on its quest to eventually challenge the state” and “shitcoins have set Bitcoin back at least a decade and this amounts to an immense crime against humanity”
i agree that the scammers and hype men can be insufferable and eth ppl should do better. but it’s also the dynamics of what’s most visible on twitter. like if you just went by twitter you might think op_cat taproot wizards represent a big part of bitcoin culture
We already have a solution for public computing, it’s called AWS. You don’t need a blockchain for that. Enjoy your fees.
bitcoin is money and money only. it is not designed for anything else, nor capable without potential destruction of the protocol all have been defending. ethereum, cardano et al have their own place too. they can if they govern themselves appropriately be the engine of industry. if tokens are the method of intermediary exchange by agreement - then so be it. ultimately everything settles in bitcoin. the only truly hard money. that said, it is not there yet. it still needs to manage scaling and overcome miner centralisation. if wiser heads than mine can bring these issues to the table and negotiate in an adult manner, i am sure the world will be a much better place for it. GM 🙃
Wen doge sol xrp. What a joke
US spot etfs require a mature regulated futures market. we don’t yet have cme futures for any of those things so basically not possible for the next 3 yrs at least
Well the fact you couldn’t see that as a joke is concerning. Also yes I get it but the juxtaposition from btc is the best to I also like eth is pretty hard switch. If bitwise is just in it for the $ say it and be truthful about it don’t act like they have some holier objective just be honest
Everything those projects can do can be on a sidechain or a cloud. They're completely pointless. And this eth ETF sounds like MBS and CDOs all over again lol.
yeah i do wonder why stablecoin issuers like tether haven’t used sidechains like liquid. do you have a view?
Liquid tether available in @Excellion 's @AQUA Wallet and #SideSwap.io too
Bitcoin/lightning + nostr can probably do everything devs claim to be novel on Ethereum and other blockchains. If VCs stopped luring devs away from doing the hard stuff happening over here, maybe we could get some momentum and prove it sooner rather than later. But bitcoiners have low time preference and we build things to last, not just pump in the short term.
And I will add, all the shit ETH devs talk about is theory no one does it. There is no demand for it. ETH is like BCH in some ways. All the crap that SLP inside BCH was going to do, it never did and some of it like "microtipping" BTC IS DOING RIGHT NOW. Saying a thing can do a thing when no one cares about the thing, means noTHING. ETH has been around over a decade now of saying it can do all sorts of stuff. But all it does is make shit coins and enable leveraging shit coins and exchanging them.
Still wondering what problem ethereum solves except for putting money in Vitalik's sloppy pockets.
Imagjne writing all this ignoring Monero. Bitwise is not wise. It is self interested. ETFs are a means of control. And you seek control like everybody else. I seek freedom for me and for you. We are not the same. That's why I support real money that will never see or need an ETF. Cash settled. The crypto revolution is dead. Long live Monero.
Nope.
We get it, the fees are the fees and you're running a business A lot of ETH tech isn't doing much, NFTs people were stuffing jpegs in bitcoin block space instead to a point where it was outtrading the native NFTs on ETH EVM smart contracts? You can slap that on a side-chain like Rootstock if you wanted to run something or just build something client side that settles on-chain, most of those contracts are just about swapping tokens and generating ponzi yield Most stablecoins are on TRON, so when tron ETF? lol
Sad.
The only real stable coin is on Tron, eth is extremely inefficient at the use cases it claims. It is now proof of stake and centralized. But wont go away at least for a little why longer, too much lindy for scam creation. nostr:note19nge7n5ugv5m59eqlt6u97glj247e0fnf8jfqk7f36cwy238lc5ssfl8xl
Well they are "completely different things". Let me ask you this simple question. Other than make more shitcoins as the mother asshole of shit coins and create tech to let shit coins be exchanged for other shit coins WHAT DOES ETH DO? Give me a real world meaningful application in ACTION right now. I pay for shit in BTC all the time, no one takes ETH. It does "smart contracts"? For WHAT? Exchanging and leveraging shitcoins in the casino of exchange? What does it actually DO? Saying well nothing but it may do X some day, will prove my point.
My 3-5 year prediction: lots of uneducated folks buy the shitcoin ETFs, but after a few years see they consistently trail BTC performance. NGU and Bitcoin swallows everything go from memes to mainstream investment theses. They sell, shitcoin ETFs death spiral, and BTC dominance solidifies even further.
I can’t wait to see your Cumrocket, Dentacoin and other ETF products. I’m so glad you’re providing access to these “experiments” for consumers and this isn’t a morally bankrupt position entirely driven by greed and total disregard for consumers. /s
Read Softwar ⚡️⚡️
Just got it delivered this morning
based
GO FUCK YOURSELF.
Wut
What do you think about spiderchain that https://www.botanixlabs.xyz/ is developing?
I agree. ETH does very different things than BTC, and I'd rather those things stay in ETH. ETH is not money, and it's not trying to be money.
