Here is my analysis on Block Inc's (known as $SQ) based on #Bitcoin per Share (BPS):
The BPS ratio, surprisingly low for a company that positions itself as a key player in Bitcoin infrastructure, offers an intriguing perspective on Block's valuation. Let's delve deeper.
Background: Renowned for its financial technology services, Block serves nearly 4 million merchants and 51 million users as of 2023. The company has significantly advanced Bitcoin initiatives through CashApp, Spiral, and TBD. CashApp, in particular, has facilitated billions in transaction revenue by providing easy access to Bitcoin. Jack Dorsey, Block's CEO, is a notable Bitcoin advocate and evangelist.
When analyzing BPS, a look at the table reveals a substantial increase in shares outstanding over time. Interestingly, the capital raised from share offerings was primarily used for acquisitions like Afterpay, rather than for Bitcoin purchases. Block's significant Bitcoin acquisitions include 4,709 bitcoins in 2020 and 3,318 in 2021, amounting to a total of 8,027 bitcoins. Since 2021, no additional Bitcoin purchases have been made.
The BPS trend, as depicted in the chart, shows no upward trajectory but a marked decline from 2021 to 2022, following an initial spike from 2020 to 2021. This sharp drop is largely attributed to share dilution. The discrepancy between Bitcoin per Share in dollars and the year-end stock price somewhat diminishes the relevance of BPS analysis. Nevertheless, for a Bitcoin-centric public company, this indicates a significant business premium relative to its Bitcoin holdings.
Examining the price action, Block's stock price has seen a 63.47% decrease from 2020 to 2023. Despite Bitcoin's 140% rally from its low this year, many Bitcoin mining stocks and MicroStrategy have outperformed Bitcoin, yet Block has only achieved a 23% return YTD.
This analysis, while not a comprehensive valuation of Block, underscores that despite its active involvement in Bitcoin, the company's actual Bitcoin holdings are relatively modest compared to its shares. Its stock price reflects a substantial business premium over its Bitcoin holdings and hasn't significantly benefitted from the current Bitcoin rally. https://image.nostr.build/e90e934c1d207f2f1fdf44c68f06b4402432d9e10645db337fa4fdff48b07507.jpg https://image.nostr.build/552e38a39821f29a8325af027f978fec0d703d19f91d7615c32285962d683eeb.jpg