2 heuristics I believe 

1. In a bull market bitcoin will always do some shit you don’t expect and surprise the fuck out of you. 

2. In a bear market bitcoin always fucks the most amount of people the hardest for the longest.

With that in mind here’s how I think it could play out… 

1. Bitcoin enters a multi year turtle bull🐢 market. 6-8 years with consistent 100-300% yearly candles with intermittent 10-35% pullbacks along the way. 

2. At the end of this turtle bull market, bitcoin is sitting at above a million possibly 2 million. Everyone and their mother is talking about a new paradigm, no more bear markets, the professionalization of bitcoin etc… and then boom out of nowhere bitcoin goes from like 1.5 million back to 250k. Panic in the streets, the dream is over etc…