Oddbean new post about | logout
 When WWIII starts, I expect the US to become the first to drop a nuclear bomb again.  The US thinks they are unstoppable, but they are totally dependent on other nations, especially their enemy China, for all of their technology and medicine.  The US has given away so much of its smart weapons to Ukraine and others that we don't have a stockpile for a real war, nor do we have the ability to produce more at anywhere near the rate necessary for a war with even a near peer.  When those in charge realize they are going to lose, they will go nuclear and things will go from bad to worse.

I'm really starting to wonder if the US, as we know it, will exist for more than a few more years.  I don't know whether the problem will be an economic collapse, a lost foreign war, a civil war that divides the country, or tyrants that take over and do all of the above.  Whatever the case I feel confident the US will no longer be the world's only super power for more than a decade.

I guess time will tell if I'm right.