Oddbean

Overall, tariffs would be bad because they would increase the cost of almost everything and cause a trade war. In the long run, there could be a benefit, because it might make it worthwhile to produce more here instead of buying everything abroad. This would make us less dependent on all of the enemies we are making. Right now, if a war starts with China, they can cut us off from high tech microchips and drugs or the components needed to make drugs, especially antibiotics. We would be seriously hurting.

I think what you thought you read was no one goes to war with a trading partner. That’s not what I wrote. I said it’s reduced. Which is 100% true in our complex reality. And yes, reduced is not zero. That’s why I said *reduced* and why I didn’t say *eliminated*. The relationship between tarrifs and war is that tariffs from us on China do cause reciprocal tariffs from China onto us. The tarrifs cause prices on goods from either country to increase. The increased price causes people in those countries to find alternatives. And that causes reduced trade between both nations. Reduced trade between both nations makes escalation of war between the nations less expensive. As the penalty for war would clearly be reciprocal war + trade impacts of supply chains. So before one nation can go to war with another they tend to increase tariffs first. As a means to show their displeasure which might still be negotiated and to untangle themselves from each other. This relationship is not the only solitary and exclusive explanation for war and peace. But it exists. Other complexities are obviously present. Let’s not pretend that either of us really need to or want to enumerate all the finite details of a thing before making a basic point. It would be exhausting, to be exhaustive.