I think the lessons from history is whenever governments grow more restrictive, what was once allowable white market activity, now rushes out of it into black markets because prices rise (and thus profits rise - think of large black markets that arose in USSR). Like a hand gently cupping water versus a fist squeezing it. So ironically, if black markets and Monero usage remain small, that is probably a good thing because it means white markets havent grown too restrictive and oppressive.

Yes, for those reasons you say I doubt any country will adopt Monero in any real sense. It is against government interest of power and control. Smaller governments are easy centralized targets. There was a head to cut off. There is no one to go threaten or invade to shutdown Monero. The same reasons they tried and failed to dispose of torrents.