Is US Economy Facing Recession As Jobs Data Signals Slowdown?
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The weaker-than-expected latest jobs data in the US has sent fears across the globe of a likely recession in America; US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a rate cut in September amid falling inflation; According to the latest data in the US, employers added 114,000 jobs, below expectations for an increase of 175,000; The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, above economists’ expectations that it would be unchanged on the month at 4.1%; Traders are now pricing in a 71% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points in September; Geojit Financial Services chief investment strategist V K Vijayakumar said there was consensus expectations of a soft landing for the US economy; Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said the recent rise in unemployment rate activated the Sham rule which states that when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50% or more, it onsets the recession fears in the economy; US macroeconomics expert George Gammon said there is likely hard landing for the US economy; Ace investor Warren Buffett has also cut its Apple shares by 50% and moved towards US treasuries; According to a note by rating agency ICRA, weak US manufacturing data of July 2024 along with mixed earnings from tech companies sparked worries about a recession in the US; Crude oil prices hovered at eight-month lows on Monday offsetting concerns that escalating tensions in the Middle East may affect supplies from the largest producing region; The stock markets across the globe also witnessed massive sell-offs, with Japanese stock market falling as much as 12%; US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a rate cut in September, depending on jobs data and inflation trend.
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