The economy is sending mixed signals about a recession, and that's made the timing of the next rate cut less meaningful
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The US economy is sending mixed signals about a potential recession in the near future. Housing and manufacturing indicators suggest an early-cycle economy, while the unemployment rate and tight credit spreads indicate a late-cycle economy. The conflicting data suggests the Federal Reserve should de-emphasize when it will cut interest rates. The Fed's monetary policy has had less impact on the economy in recent years. The mismatch in economic indicators calls for flexibility in interest rate decisions. The release of the hotter-than-expected March CPI report reduced the probability of a rate cut in June and pushed it to July.

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https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-recession-outlook-mixed-signals-early-late-cycle-interest-rates-2024-4