How do US presidential elections affect the economy and the stock market?
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The US presidential election is imminent, with significant implications for the economy and stock market; historical data shows GDP growth averaged 4.86% under Democratic presidents versus 1.7% under Republicans from 1927 to 2015; the equity risk premium was 10.9% higher under Democrats, peaking at 17.4% from 1999 to 2015; transitions from Republican to Democratic presidencies often occur during economic downturns, influencing voter preferences; Australian stock markets also reflect higher returns under Democratic US presidencies, with an 11.3% higher equity risk premium; a Democratic win in 2024 may not lead to a stock market boom due to a strong economy and lack of significant policy shifts; the US economy added 254,000 jobs in September 2024, with a 3% annualized growth rate in Q2 2024; surprise Republican wins can lead to 2-3% higher stock returns around election days.

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https://theconversation.com/how-do-us-presidential-elections-affect-the-economy-and-the-stock-market-241805