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 Perhaps

The permissiveness of leftist street gangs & crackdown on rightist street gangs strikes me as very similar  to Weimar Germany (but with left & right reversed)

which would suggest a lead up to revolution 
 I think a very overlooked aspect in all of written history on revolutions is the opportunism of outsiders who turn the tide

I bet it would correlate with 99% of outcomes if someone smarter than me did an analysis