Why economists who originally expected multiple deep rate cuts in 2024 now say a hike is possible
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Macquarie, an economic firm, has changed its forecast for interest rates in 2024. Previously, they projected aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year, but now they believe that potential rate cuts won't happen until 2025. The firm suggests that the next change may be a hike, which would lead to a new wave of broad-based US dollar strength. This change in forecast is due to signs of rebounding inflation and the resilience of the US economy. Macquarie's economists now believe that the chances of a Fed interest rate cut this year are slim to none and that an interest-rate hike is possible. The firm also mentions that the threat of a hike would prompt a new wave of broad-based USD strength. The upcoming FOMC meeting could result in a hawkish press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. A rising US dollar could negatively impact US companies with operations overseas. Macquarie's previous forecast was similar to UBS, which predicted aggressive interest rate cuts due to a US recession.

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https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-outlook-fed-hike-chances-cuts-jerome-powell-economy-2024-4