Oddbean new post about | logout
 nostr:npub13lxfrf4n552v8xah4awkudrwc3rsvrt7v99s06rw2g0k2ea9hyxsv7na6u nostr:npub189nhq0cw33243htm08c53vjvgc5letv7d9sgqtgqsn6fnx6dv8zs0fsatx I have said it many times to whoever will listen, but few do...

The student loan debt bubble will make the housing debt bubble look like a ripple. If people hated the housing market crash, look forward to the point when demographics means people die with these loans on the books and no estate remains to pay them.

These loans are modeled as rock-solid value (because of the legal encumbrances to discharging them in bankruptcy), and if we've learned nothing from the housing crash and don't update those models to account for "This is not a country that passes debt to next-of-kin..." Oh boy! Exciting times!

I'd estimate abooooooout.... thirty years or so, give or take.