The fiscal frontier: Projecting AI's long-term impact on the US fiscal outlook
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The paper simulates AI's impact on the US federal fiscal outlook; AI affects fiscal budgets through mortality rates, healthcare prices, healthcare demand, and productivity; AI shock could change annual budget deficits by 0.9% to -3.8% of GDP; a decrease of 3.8% could halve annual budget deficits; authored by Neil R. Mehrotra; published on October 16, 2024; part of Brookings Center on Regulation and Markets.

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https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-fiscal-frontier-projecting-ais-long-term-impact-on-the-us-fiscal-outlook/