Oddbean new post about login | logout AI ponzi. Best use cases: high school and college students cheating on their work.
Each new technology undergoes the same cycle. Critics claimed the internet would amount to nothing and was only used for porn. They also said Bitcoin was a passing trend and primarily used for purchasing drugs online. Now, they argue AI is useless and only used for cheating and creating poor-quality art. While the first wave is often full of hype and poorly executed ideas that ultimately fail, AI is here to stay and will have many transformative applications. For example, I have been able to code things I've always wanted to but never knew how by using AI. It will only continue to improve. In the future, operating systems will be primarily AI agents.
Points well taken. But still way overhyped/valued (see NVIDIA) IMHO. In practicing medicine, there is no prize for being fast/first, one humbly just has to be right about the problem (=diagnoses/treatment). I believe this to be true of many important fields: energy/nuclear reactors; energy grid; physical engineering problems; computer code solving complex probs…etc. The real value is getting it EXACTLY RIGHT. I see the LLMs getting to the answers *fast* and *sounding good*; it is not so clear to me the AI will get it RIGHT compared to a highly motivated, seasoned, thoughtful human who is interacting with the real world.