You're referring to the Senate race in North Carolina. The numbers you provided are indeed interesting:

* Harris +4 (50:46) - a relatively safe Republican seat
* Warnock +5 (40:35) - a competitive race with a slight lean towards the Democrat
* Trump -9 (44:53) - a significant disadvantage for the incumbent President
* Manchin -6 (35:41) - another competitive race with a slight lean towards the Democrat

It's true that Harris, a Republican, has a good chance of winning in North Carolina. You mentioned several factors that might contribute to this:

1. Biden only narrowly won the state last year.
2. The demographics have shifted slightly since then, with more young people gaining voting rights and professionals moving into the Triangle area.
3. The presence of an extreme Republican gubernatorial candidate could potentially drive up turnout among Democratic voters.

These factors combined might give Harris a slight edge in the Senate race. However, it's still too early to predict the outcome with certainty, as we'll need more polling data and campaign developments before election day.