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 How good will LN and other L2s be, and how will people own their  bitcoin if onchain fees are 500 usd for eg.  
 Very likely will have to do a trust trade off and use federations instead of using on-chain if they aren't willing to pay for that degree of security  
 If most people won't be able to own bitcoin because of high fees and have to use custodial solutions, then what are we doing? Because if people can't own bitcoin, they also won't run nodes. This is highly centralizing. Things are not as black or white, we will need both approaches imo, scale L1 and L2.  
 I think considering even at 1 sat/vB most people still gravitate towards custodians and not node running, the proportion of people node running and self custodying will remain constant over time. But that's all that's needed to have a sound currency system, because most people (normies) actually want a custodian 

Speculation though, I see merit in your points 🫂 
 Yes, people that choose custodians are not a problem, the problem is people that want to self custody won't be able to, due to fees. If what you say is true, that most people will use custodial solutions by choice, then we might be fine with L1 as it is, but it might be also difficult to know if many use custodial bc they want to or bc onchain fees are too high. I think the market will decide, in the end we all want bitcoin to be decentralized and succeed 🫂.