you gave some fun scenarios to think about:

for the breakaway liberal half:  Fear of being unable to pay for an abortion or birth control pills due to banks reporting transactions to the states would have caused many left-leaning women to research money and either invent a new anonymous protocol or adopt the best pseudonymous messaging and payment protocol they could find.  "No KYC" will have made it into all of GenZ vocabulary by mid 2025. A whole generation of communist leaning youngsters would be furiously protecting every last no-KYC Satoshi private property.

for the Trump-obsessed right wing half: when they are told that they have to park all their bitcoin at the Fed and accept CBDC-USD... some will do that, many will also try to self custody or custody at banks in the states/jurisdictions where they trust the local government and law enforcement better.  

The federal government then attempts to pay employees and contractors using the CBDCs while requiring the states to accept the CBDCs as payment for goods and services from the federal employees. If the federal government attempts to debase the CBDC-USD, the states will start noticing the price difference between their own bitcoin reserves and the CBDC-USDs that the federal government is pushing them to accept.  Perhaps the states will start requiring the federal government to pass audits in order for the states to accept the federal CBDC in their state.

Ultimately once the budgets are balanced, the CBDC-USD is either bankrupted or done away with as a useless peg to Bitcoin. The brand that once was "US Dollar" is now a thing of the past in 2030. 

 so ultimately, not bearish, possibly bullish as more cohorts of people are incentivized to protect what they see as their own rights/property