There's little reason to be optimistic about a soft landing this year as the 'runway is in an earthquake zone,' Harvard economist says
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Harvard economist Ken Rogoff warns that there is little reason to be optimistic about a soft landing for the economy this year. He refers to the runway for the economy as being in an 'earthquake zone' in 2024. Rogoff points to signs of weakness in the global economy, including China's economic slowdown and rising government debt levels. He also highlights the potential for lackluster economic growth in Europe due to the cost of supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia and protectionist trade rhetoric. In the US, the national debt continues to surge and interest rates are expected to stay higher-for-longer, posing a tough balancing act for the Federal Reserve. New York Fed economists are pricing in a 63% chance of a recession by the end of the year. However, investors are still expecting falling inflation and lower interest rates. The article concludes that a soft landing means little if the runway is in an earthquake zone.

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https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-us-economy-outlook-soft-landing-earthquake-harvard-ken-rogoff-2024-2