btw right leaning people i know (e.g. pro gamblers) groan when they see nate silver's name

I am more impartial on it.  I've followed that site for a while.  Could not really evaluate their methodology.

BUT on the night of 2016 elections, which I did follow all markets, including prediction and 538, their models fell apart, and were just completely wrong.  Pro dem in that case.  So mathematically I think they have some problems.